Taiwan Today

Taiwan’s economy is poised for an economic turnaround from the second quarter with real recovery set for 2010, according to the Council for Economic Planning and Development Minister Chen Tain-jy June 14. According to Chen, while opinion is divided over the extent of the recovery, it is certain that economic recession ended in the first quarter. He expects the economy to return to fourth quarter 2007 levels next year. The minister said the recovery track of the U.S. economy was taking more time to detect than other major economies. Recent reports on the prospects of an upcoming rebound stateside are definitely good news. A U.S. recovery will drive steady economic development worldwide and will benefit Taiwan. Paul Krugman, who won the Nobel Prize in economics last year, recently suggested that the U.S. economy could recover in September. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also pointed to a U.S. economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The growth of U.S. consumer confidence these past four months, coupled with a rising leading indicator index, further strengthened hopes of an earlier-than-expected rebound in the U.S. economy. Polaris Research Institute President Liang Kuo-yuan said that such views came amid optimistic data from the National Association of Business Economics and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The two surveys forecast a return to growth for the U.S. economy in the third quarter. In addition to these studies, a February report by the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research predicted six months of neutral development for the global economy, which points to a gradual rebound for the U.S. economy from August or September. Previously, Ifo held a pessimistic outlook for the U.S. economy. (HML-JSM )